Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ENS prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-09 16.911900 19.418557 22.358397 26.111374 30.850632 36.744257 44.807815
2025-02-16 14.134027 17.258346 21.285606 27.028783 35.321210 47.425690 67.690916
2025-02-23 12.294332 15.587410 20.091651 27.004538 37.978818 56.093071 92.130835
2025-03-02 10.989722 14.328345 19.104644 26.871005 40.204436 64.729253 122.411796
2025-03-09 10.114332 13.506807 18.553584 27.196838 43.165484 75.877569 168.344345
2025-03-16 9.131663 12.389224 17.363665 26.191800 43.374646 81.528119 206.967707
2025-03-23 8.513911 11.742479 16.809569 26.151355 45.409905 92.351201 279.423065
2025-03-30 7.785556 10.848154 15.737998 24.974834 44.747717 96.115605 332.664799
2025-04-06 7.113252 9.984210 14.625151 23.548653 43.192588 96.779941 374.783023
2025-04-13 6.580028 9.301670 13.754679 22.467768 42.192955 98.773506 433.517795
2025-04-20 6.703331 9.688257 14.761103 25.260158 51.343448 140.687294 1065.980757
2025-04-27 6.548323 9.596006 14.901274 26.288414 56.414601 174.011644 2307.526898
2025-05-04 6.092050 8.977541 14.049864 25.102275 55.133532 179.407480 3279.111205
2025-05-11 5.922844 8.842254 14.092652 25.948130 60.314863 225.523099 13872.816068
2025-05-18 5.671516 8.542212 13.786436 25.926082 62.793212 261.810538 124030.016943
2025-05-25 5.432920 8.247013 13.459852 25.800164 64.922126 301.614293 NaN
2025-06-01 5.258379 8.054102 13.316949 26.107309 68.808741 368.189806 NaN
2025-06-08 4.979681 7.653903 12.719761 25.159606 67.564168 384.141518 NaN
2025-06-15 4.806369 7.437250 12.481770 25.121449 70.018375 452.137604 NaN
2025-06-22 4.551372 7.055539 11.872997 24.010803 67.622914 453.290134 NaN
2025-06-29 4.291811 6.654388 11.200971 22.662691 63.893412 429.932060 NaN
2025-07-06 4.075792 6.326200 10.665312 21.639632 61.385482 422.459228 NaN
2025-07-13 4.176886 6.597154 11.414795 24.280272 76.670583 824.526996 NaN